Aviation analytics firm Cirium released a forecast on Tuesday predicting that China’s state-owned Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac) will secure a 5% share of the global passenger aircraft fleet by 2045. The report suggests that the C919, China's flagship narrowbody jet, will benefit from strong domestic demand and a growing global appetite for commercial aircraft.

Despite this projected growth, the report indicates that Western manufacturers will maintain their market leadership. Cirium estimates that Airbus will hold a 47% share of the global fleet, while Boeing is expected to account for 39%. Other manufacturers, such as Embraer and ATR, are forecast to hold 3% and 2% of the market, respectively.

The forecast highlights the evolving competitive landscape of the aviation industry as Comac scales production to meet both domestic needs and potential international interest. While the 5% figure represents a notable entry for a newer market player, the data underscores the significant gap that remains between Comac and the established duopoly of Airbus and Boeing, which together are expected to control the vast majority of the global fleet for the next two decades.