A recent analysis by Bellingcat has uncovered that global football fans wagered more than $14 billion on the FIFA World Cup through prediction markets. The study focused on two primary platforms: the crypto-based Polymarket and the U.S.-based Kalshi. These platforms allow users to bet on the outcomes of specific events, including individual player performances and match results.

According to the report, the data from Polymarket provided a clearer view of individual trading activity compared to Kalshi. The investigation revealed a notable disparity in user success, finding that approximately 1% of the total user base on Polymarket secured the vast majority of the profits. This concentration of winnings suggests that a small group of highly active or sophisticated traders dominated the market activity during the tournament.

The report underscores the growing intersection between sports fandom, financial speculation, and decentralized finance. While the platforms facilitate high-volume betting, the findings raise questions about the distribution of risk and reward among casual fans versus professional traders. Bellingcat’s analysis serves as a rare look into the opaque world of crypto-based prediction markets, which have become increasingly popular for major sporting events.