An investigative report by Bellingcat has quantified the scale of betting activity surrounding the FIFA World Cup, estimating that over $14 billion was wagered through prediction markets. The analysis focused on two primary platforms: the crypto-based Polymarket and the U.S.-regulated Kalshi.

According to the findings, the financial activity on these platforms highlights a significant concentration of wealth and influence among a small group of participants. Bellingcat noted that on Polymarket, which offers more granular data regarding individual trading accounts compared to Kalshi, approximately 1% of users were responsible for the vast majority of the total trading volume. This suggests that while the platforms are marketed toward a broad audience of football fans, the actual market movement is driven by a very small cohort of high-volume traders.

The report raises questions about the transparency and distribution of influence within these decentralized and prediction-based betting environments. While the platforms allow users to speculate on specific match outcomes—such as the performance of high-profile players like Cristiano Ronaldo—the underlying data suggests that these markets function more like professional trading floors than casual fan engagement tools. Bellingcat’s analysis serves as a rare look into the opaque world of crypto-based sports betting, contrasting the public perception of fan participation with the reality of concentrated market activity.