Recent analysis suggests that the United States government may have fundamentally miscalculated the level of resilience within the Iranian state. According to experts cited by Iran International, the strategy of applying maximum pressure—intended to force Tehran back to the negotiating table—failed to account for the country's ability to withstand sustained economic sanctions and internal political pressure.

This misjudgment is now being framed as a significant obstacle to future diplomatic efforts. The report argues that by underestimating Iran's capacity to adapt to isolation, US policymakers inadvertently created a environment where the incentive for Iran to pursue a new nuclear deal has significantly decreased. Rather than compelling a return to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) framework, the current approach may have solidified a stance of defiance among Iranian leadership.

While the US maintains that its sanctions policy is designed to curb regional instability and nuclear proliferation, the expert perspective highlights a disconnect between these strategic goals and the reality on the ground. The analysis suggests that the window for a diplomatic breakthrough is closing, as the perceived failure of the current strategy has left both sides with fewer options for de-escalation. There is currently no consensus on whether a shift in US policy would be sufficient to restart meaningful dialogue, or if the damage to the diplomatic relationship has become irreversible.