According to a recent analysis by Goldman Sachs, China is positioned to substantially reduce its reliance on imported advanced semiconductors by 2035. The investment bank projects that the production of wafers using 7-nanometre and smaller processes will experience a compound annual growth rate of 46% between 2025 and 2035. This rate of expansion is expected to significantly outpace the 17% growth rate projected for the global market during the same period.

Despite this aggressive scaling of domestic foundry capacity, the report highlights persistent structural challenges. The primary bottleneck identified is the acquisition of advanced lithography equipment, which is essential for manufacturing the most sophisticated chips. Because China faces restricted access to these high-end tools due to international trade controls, Goldman Sachs suggests that achieving full semiconductor independence remains unlikely in the near term. The findings indicate that while China will successfully narrow its supply deficit, the country will continue to face technical limitations imposed by the current global supply chain environment.