The future of Iraq’s security landscape remains unclear as the September 30 deadline for the withdrawal of US-led coalition forces approaches. The Iraqi government had initially conditioned the departure of these foreign forces on the disarmament of various armed groups operating within the country. However, these conditions have not been met, as several powerful militias backed by Iran have explicitly refused to surrender their weapons.

These militias argue that any discussion regarding the status of their arms should only occur after the complete withdrawal of US forces. This stance creates a significant diplomatic and security hurdle for the Iraqi administration, which is attempting to balance its international commitments with the domestic reality of powerful, non-state armed actors. The refusal to disarm suggests that even after the US presence concludes, these groups intend to maintain their military capabilities, potentially challenging the central government's authority and regional stability. While the US withdrawal is moving forward, the lack of a disarmament agreement leaves a power vacuum that analysts fear could lead to increased internal friction or shifts in regional influence. The situation remains fluid, with no clear consensus on how the Iraqi government intends to enforce its original disarmament goals once the coalition forces have departed.