Leading polling expert Sir John Curtice has cautioned that an early general election, if triggered by Andy Burnham, could present a significant political gamble. According to Curtice, such a move carries the potential to reshape the parliamentary landscape in a way that might benefit Reform UK, potentially positioning them as the largest party depending on how the electoral map shifts.

While Reform UK has experienced a recent slump in national polling, Curtice argues that the volatility of the current political climate means that an early election could produce unpredictable results. The core of the argument rests on the mechanics of the voting system and how seat distribution might favor Reform if traditional party support fractures further.

However, the report notes that this scenario remains speculative, as it relies on specific conditions regarding voter turnout and the strategic decisions made by major political players. The Independent frames the potential election as a 'risky move' for Burnham, emphasizing that the timing of a vote is rarely a neutral decision. While the article focuses on the potential for Reform to surge, it does not detail the specific polling data or the counter-arguments from other political analysts regarding the likelihood of such an outcome. The analysis serves as a warning about the unintended consequences of political maneuvering in a fractured electorate.