In a recent interview with The New York Times, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney revealed that his government had taken steps to prepare for what he described as an "extreme tail risk"—a scenario involving a potential U.S. invasion of Canada. The term "tail risk" refers to a rare, high-impact event that falls outside the normal range of expected outcomes.

These remarks were made against the backdrop of strained diplomatic and trade relations between Ottawa and Washington. While the prospect of military conflict between the two long-standing allies is widely considered improbable by geopolitical analysts, Carney’s admission highlights the level of concern within the Canadian government regarding the unpredictability of U.S. policy during the period in question. The interview explores how Canadian leadership navigated these tensions, specifically addressing the challenges posed by the administration of President Donald Trump.

While the report focuses on the strategic planning undertaken by Canadian officials, it does not detail specific military maneuvers or defensive protocols. The disclosure serves primarily as a reflection on the diplomatic climate of the time, illustrating the extent to which Canadian officials felt compelled to plan for worst-case scenarios due to the volatility of bilateral trade negotiations. There is currently no corroborating information from U.S. officials regarding these specific preparations or the perceived threat level at the time.