Researchers in China have released a study suggesting that the Yarlung Tsangpo River, where the world’s largest mega dam is currently being developed, may experience significant increases in water run-off and flood risks throughout the 21st century. The study utilized tree-ring width chronologies from the southeastern Tibetan Plateau to reconstruct the river's historical run-off patterns from 1325 to 2020.

By integrating this historical data with modern climate projections, the research team developed a model to forecast future river behavior. The model indicates that under various climate change scenarios, the river is likely to see higher volumes of water, leading to a greater frequency of high-run-off events. These findings raise questions regarding the long-term environmental safety and structural resilience of the massive dam project currently underway on the river. While the study provides a scientific basis for these concerns, it focuses primarily on the hydrological data and climate modeling aspects of the river's future, rather than the geopolitical or regional implications of the dam's construction.