The United States and Iraq have initiated plans to wind down the presence of the US-led coalition forces that have operated in the country for years. This transition is expected to fundamentally alter the security landscape in Iraq, which has served as a primary theater for competition between Washington and Tehran. For over a decade, Iraq has functioned as a proxy battleground, with both the United States and Iran exerting significant influence over the nation’s political trajectory, government formation, and security policy.

As the coalition prepares to depart, the central question remains the future of various pro-Iran militias and political groups that have operated within Iraq. These groups have frequently clashed with US interests, and their role in a post-coalition Iraq is a subject of intense speculation. While the US aims to transition toward a more traditional bilateral security relationship, analysts suggest that the power vacuum left by the coalition's exit could be filled by local factions with deep ties to the Iranian government. The transition process is expected to be gradual, with both Iraqi officials and US diplomats emphasizing the need for a stable handover to prevent a resurgence of regional instability. However, the exact timeline and the specific nature of the remaining security cooperation remain under negotiation, leaving the long-term impact on Iraq’s sovereignty and regional alignment uncertain.