The United States is reportedly considering easing sanctions on a portion of the 'shadow fleet' of tankers, a move intended to address current disruptions in the shipping industry. However, according to analysis from the data firm Kpler, this policy shift is unlikely to result in a significant decrease in record-high freight rates.

Kpler’s assessment, shared via social media, highlights that the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has sanctioned approximately 160 very large crude carriers (VLCC). Upon closer inspection of the fleet, Kpler estimates that only 24 of these vessels are realistic candidates to return to mainstream commercial trade. The firm cites two primary barriers to a broader recovery: the advanced age of many vessels in the shadow fleet and ongoing ownership restrictions that prevent them from operating within standard global shipping networks.

Furthermore, Kpler suggests that the current high cost of shipping is not driven solely by a lack of available vessels. Instead, the firm points to 'war risk' as a primary factor influencing freight costs. Because geopolitical instability continues to affect shipping routes, simply increasing the number of available tankers through sanctions relief may not be enough to stabilize the market or lower prices for consumers and energy companies. The report underscores that while the regulatory environment is changing, the structural and security-related challenges currently facing the tanker industry remain largely unresolved.